Daily mkaplan

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Great Pew Poll out

Pew always asks very good questions.

Though national primary polls don't mean much at this point: Obama: 49%, Clinton: 39%

See the poll here: http://people-press.org/reports/questionnaires/407.pdf

Also, for the General matchups:
Obama: 50, McCain: 43
Clinton: 50, McCain: 43

Latest primary polling data Clinton vs. Obama

I'll not focus on the general election matchups in this blog, as I think the dynamics of the race change from now to when it's really the general election season. So I'll keep focusing on Clinton vs. Obama data.

Latest PA Polls:
Clinton: +10

Latest NC Polls:
Obama +15
Obama +21

Hopefully we'll have some Indiana polling soon.

Great story on how hard the math is for Clinton

She is hopelessly behind, and this article describes in detail why

Friday, March 7, 2008

Analysis of the SurveyUSA polls

These are both great work: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/surveyusas_50_states_with_samp.php

Summary from the post:
The most interesting aspect of these surveys is the states that explain those differences. Let's consider first the states where Obama does better than Clinton:

* Obama moves three states from lean McCain to strong Obama: Colorado, Iowa and Oregon
* Obama moves two states from strong McCain to lean Obama: Nevada and North Carolina
* Obama leads in two states that are toss-ups in a Clinton-McCain race: New Mexico (lean) and Washington (strong)
* Obama moves four states from strong McCain (against Clinton) to toss-up: Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia

On the other hand, Clinton does better than Obama in a smaller number of states:

* Clinton moves one state from strong McCain to strong Clinton: Arkansas
* Clinton moves one state from strong McCain to lean Clinton: West Virginia
* Clinton leads in the two states that are toss-ups in an Obama-McCain race: Florida (strong) and New Jersey (lean)
* Clinton moves one state from strong McCain to undecided: Tennessee
* Clinton moves one state from lean McCain to undecided: Pennsylvania

Summary from the post:
Chris Bowers notes that Barack Obama clearly has both a larger base and more potential swing states. To get to 270, Obama simply needs to defend New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, while picking up Ohio, Florida, or two more medium-sized states like Iowa and Virginia. Hillary Clinton has to play defense in the same places, but she also has to spend time and energy defending the Northwest and the Upper Midwest in a way that Barack Obama does not. Her only real pickup opportunities are Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, and Missouri. Obama has Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Texas. Okay, even I don't believe he has a shot at all of those states, but he has a much better chance there than Clinton does in Mississippi or Kentucky or Oklahoma.

In addition, in the states with the ten most competitive Senate races, Obama does better than Clinton in eight of them; only Kentucky and Louisiana are better for Clinton (and, seriously, if Mary Landrieu can't win 25% of the white vote in Louisiana, she's got bigger problems). There's also the third tier of Senate races, in places like North Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota (that's a defense), Texas, and Idaho, where Obama does better in four of five and ties Clinton in the fifth. Should Rick Noriega or Scott Kleeb catch lightning in a bottle, it would be better to have Obama at the top of the ticket. Put Tom Daschle or Ed Rendell as VP and he'll be unstoppable.

At the moment, Barack Obama is the better general election nominee. Period. Full stop. He will have to spend less time defending blue states. He's competitive in a larger number of red states. And he's more competitive in states that have Senate elections. Barack Obama: because this is the year to bust the map wide open.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Survey USA 50 state survey

I'll mostly let the graphs speak for themselves, but two points:
  • SurveyUSA has been very accurate so far this year
  • Obama has to work on PA, WV, MI, and NJ. I think he could close that gap once he's the nominee

Hillary vs. McCain:

Obama vs. McCain

See: http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/